Overnight from Wednesday to Thursday, Russia fired 219 long-range strike drones, 24 ballistic missiles and a guided aircraft missile at Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian air force.

The Russian state’s tolerance for such casualties undermines Ukraine’s reliance on attrition as a viable strategy. There is seemingly no clear breaking point, no threshold at which Russia will finally admit defeat.

Four years into the war, the character of Russia’s occupation is changing. Last month marked the formal end of a three-year “transition period” intended to absorb the occupied territories into Russia. Moscow still appears uneasy about the loyalty of the most recently annexed regions. There, surveillance by the FSB is omnipresent.

In the midst of a blizzard sweeping across central Ukraine last month, Iryna Vlasenko had a dilemma.

Russia cannot launch an attack on NATO this year or next but is planning to increase its forces significantly along the alliance's eastern flank, depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, a senior European intelligence official said.